Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
Ravens X-Factor: Ed Reed, safety
A surefire Hall of Famer, Ed Reed is one of the most dangerous and elite safeties to ever step onto a football field. Peyton Manning himself says Reed is undoubtedly the best safety he's ever played against, and if Manning has any hope of winning on Saturday he has to make sure he knows where Reed is at all times. Not only does Reed possess a magnificent football IQ that enables him to be in the right place at the right time, he's also a ballhawk. If Reed can sniff out a play and get there, there's a good chance he'll get his hands on the ball. He is the owner of 61 career regular season interceptions, and 8 playoff picks in 12 games. He also has plenty of experience against Manning throughout their careers. If Manning sticks to his preference for simple patterns and playcalls, Reed could wind up giving Manning fits. He also has 6 career defensive touchdowns, as he tends to turn into an ball-carrying threat when he gets his hands on it. So if Joe Flacco can't get his team in the endzone, Ed Reed could very well put some points on the board for Baltimore.
Broncos X-Factor: Knowshon Moreno, running back
After only being given 8 carries in the first 11 weeks of the season and finding himself buried on the depth chart, Moreno stepped up huge for Denver when Willis McGahee went down with a knee injury. Through the last 6 weeks, Moreno tallied 510 yards and 3 touchdowns for the high powered Bronco offense. He wasn't elite, but he was effective. Moreno didn't turn the ball over, and he made sure the Broncos kept a balanced attack so all the pressure didn't fall on Manning. If Moreno can do more of the same, by not turning the ball over and managing close to 100 yards on the ground, the Broncos should be in a solid position to advance to the AFC Championship.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Packers X-Factor: Randall Cobb, receiver/return specialist
2012 was a coming out party for Cobb, as the former 2nd round pick out of Kentucky became one of the new favorite targets of All-Pro Aaron Rodgers. He blew up for 954 yards receiving, and 8 touchdowns becoming not only one of the Packers better threats, but one of the ultimate threats in the NFL. He has top-end speed, and can evade even the best defenders in the open field. If Cobb can stay on the field, he has the ability to catch upwards of 8-10 balls from Rodgers and get free from the pesky Niners defenders. In addition to his upside as a pass catcher, Cobb is also the main punt return specialist and has been known to give his team great field position. In a game where field position could play a huge role, Cobb could be exactly what Green Bay needs to advance.
49ers X-Factor: Colin Kaepernick, quarterback
This one seems like a pretty easy call. Coach Jim Harbaugh made the gutsiest decision all season, by replacing a very sound quarterback, Alex Smith, with a second-year player who had yet to start a game in his NFL career. At times, Kaepernick made Harbaugh look like a genius, as he's a dual threat quarterback with a cannon for an arm. But other times, Kaepernick looked a little lost in the flurry of an NFL game. Fortunately for him, they have arguably the best defense in the league to fall back on. But if the Niners have any hope of winning this game, Kaepernick will have to protect the football and do what he does best: improvise. The 49ers absolutely have to score, because if they don't, Aaron Rodgers will surely put up enough points to send them packing early.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Seahawks X-Factor: Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner, cornerbacks
On one side of the ball you'll have the Atlanta Falcons lining up with wideout studs Roddy White and Julio Jones. The only remedy to stop them is two big, physical corners who love to tackle. Cue Browner and Sherman. Arguably two of Pete Carroll's best finds during his tenure with Seattle, Browner is an undrafted corner who came to Seattle after playing 3 seasons in the CFL. Sherman, on the other hand, is a 5th round pick out of Stanford who may be as well known for his trash talk as much as his game. Browner and Sherman are each 6'4'' and they both will hit you in the mouth if you make the catch, or get their hands on the ball if you don't. They are a dream tandem for a coach who has to gameplan for the likes of White and Jones, and they could definitely limit the damage these receivers can do, and open the game up for Seattle to take advantage. If these two play as well as they did all season, that could be good news for the 'Hawks, and bad news for the Dirty Birds.
Falcons X-Factor: Jacquizz Rodgers, running back
The easy choice here would be Matt Ryan, who has yet to furnish a playoff victory for his otherwise impressive football resume. If Ryan plays well, and makes smart decisions, the Falcons will be sitting pretty. But the less obvious choice here is Rodgers. Considering Michael Turner's career is all but over, Rodgers eventually will become the new lead back in Atlanta. He's more of a Darren Sproles-type weapon, as opposed to an every down back, and he gives the Falcons a nice change of pace and a good checkdown weapon if Ryan so chooses to utilize him. He's small enough to get lost in the shuffle of huge linemen, and if he gets open and uses his explosiveness, the Seahawks could be chasing him around all afternoon.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Texans X-Factor: Matt Schaub, quarterback
When these two teams matched up in Week 14, it marked a downward spiral for Schaub that he has yet to break out of. He's tossed a measly one touchdown in the 5 games since then, and he has looked downright awful at times. The Texans did manage to win last week at home, but not really with any help from Schaub. He made a horrible decision on a throw in the flat that beget the only Bengals touchdown with a pick six from Leon Hall, and you have to wonder if he's really even healthy. If Schaub continues playing as lousy as he has, the Texans could likely be in for a long day. But if he can bounce back and expose the Patriots secondary that has a tendency to get burned, Schaub could be a big boost to a team that needs it.
Patriots X-Factor: Rob Gronkowski, tight end
With so many weapons at Tom Brady's disposal, why is Gronk this week's X-Factor? Probably because the Texans didn't have to account for Gronk in their last visit, thanks to a broken forearm, and they still got smoked. The Pats offense managed to torch the Texans D for 42 points, and Gronk wasn't even suited up. The man who leads the league in touchdowns over the last 3 years is back this time, and the Texans will need to keep an eye on him at all times. That shouldn't be too difficult, seeing he is 6'6'', 265, but he's got speed that will surprise you and some of the softest hands of any tight end in football. If Gronk can continue to be a favorite target of Brady and get open in the middle of the field, and more importantly in the red zone, the Texans might end up regretting even boarding the plane to Foxboro in the first place.
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